Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines earlier this year when its probability of impacting Earth in 2032 rose as high as 3%. While an Earth impact has now been ruled out, the asteroid’s story continues.The final glimpse of the asteroid as it faded out of view of humankind’s most powerful telescopes left it with a 4% chance of colliding with the Moon on 22 December 2032.The likelihood of a lunar impact will now remain stable until the asteroid returns to view in mid-2028. In this FAQ, find out why we are left with this lingering uncertainty and how ESA's planned NEOMIR space telescope will help us avoid similar situations in the future.
  • ada@piefed.blahaj.zoneEnglish
    171·
    21 hours ago

    I haven’t even read the article, but the answer is either “no” or “almost certainly not” because otherwise the headline would be “Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the moon!”

    • MrNesser@lemmy.world
      14·
      21 hours ago

      It’s 4% probability to hit the moon which in space terms is still pretty high considering most of space is made up of space.

  • fraksken@infosec.pub
    1·
    15 hours ago

    What about 2006CD? Seems to get close to earth on 2025-07-15 and is pretty large (200-500m).

  • MBech
    2·
    20 hours ago

    Here’s to hoping that if it happens, it happens on the visible side (I know, highly unlikely), and that I can afford a telescope.