At first, there may not seem to be a pattern in who is calling on Biden to step down and who's supporting him. But a closer look reveals there are some similarities.
  • Zaktor@sopuli.xyzEnglish
    15·
    4 months ago

    This seems like a pretty obvious hierarchy of needs situation. Swingier reps are worried about losing their job entirely, while safer reps are worried about their status and influence in the caucus if they rebel.

    Also, I’ve seen it at least hypothesized that there’s a lot of calculus going on with whether a public statement would actually influence Biden in their preferred direction. If the Squad came out en masse to advocate for Biden stepping down would that make him more or less likely to do so? Seems like it would have at best limited impact and very well could backfire.

  • eldavi@lemmy.ml
    8·
    4 months ago

    looking at how the article presents its story makes me skeptical because the numbers from the article’s sources say that biden only has 33% support in the senate and 36% in the house, but the article presents it in a way that makes it sound more like 50/50.

    if you analyze the sources along with the article you’ll read that, democrats are split into roughly equal number of 3 camps in the senate and a little bit more lopsided in the house in favor of biden; they are 1) concerned about biden or biden should step down 2) neutral and 3) biden should keep going.

    the more liberal democrats; according to DW-NOMINATE; remain with biden while the more conservative democrats have either called for his resignation, have doubts, or are staying neutral with more of the conservative democrat’s positions being vulnerable to replacement by republicans than the liberal democrats positions in this election cycle.

    and black voters are once again his biggest base of support, as they were in the 2020 election despite trump’s gains with that block since then.

  • PugJesus@lemmy.worldEnglish
    94·
    4 months ago

    Biden doubters also hail disproportionately from swing states or districts. Thirteen out of 37 represent places that Biden lost in 2020 or won by fewer than 10 percentage points. This makes sense when you think about it: The reelection of representatives like Rep. Susan Wild could hinge on how well the Democratic presidential nominee does in their districts, and they may fear that Biden will drag them down with him if he loses big.

    … yes, that’s kind of why we’re worried.

    To be sure, it would be a political crisis for Biden to have even one elected Democrat saying he should drop out, let alone 10.

    So this is, like, 20x crisis?

    • ryathal@sh.itjust.works
      4·
      4 months ago

      In tight districts even Biden winning a state could be a loss for the rep. Democrats could lose a +2 seat in a +5 state if the election ends up at 51/49.