- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
- cross-posted to:
- ukraine@sopuli.xyz
The European Union is gearing up to open negotiations with Ukraine on its future accession to the bloc with a formal announcement expected as soon as December.
According to three diplomats with knowledge of the plans, leaders are preparing to give Kyiv the green light to begin formal talks on joining the 27-country bloc before the end of the year.
Ukraine is at the heart of a major new push to expand the EU to as many as 35 countries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in her annual address to Parliament last month that Ukraine’s future was “in the Union.”
EU countries granted Kyiv status as a candidate for EU membership in June, and the Commission is due to issue a “progress report” on how well Ukraine and other aspiring members are meeting the bloc’s conditions for joining in November, according to an EU official who spoke to journalists on Tuesday.
Once the war is over it’s going to take a decade+ to rebuild, probably 50+ years to clear the majority of minefields. That’s going to require massive aid and investment that still can’t be used to advance the country towards the EU.
This might seem either cynical or naive, depending on your opinion.
Russia will have to pay for the reconstruction, similar to how Germany had to pay for WW2. It will benefit both Ukraine and EU to have EU contractors do the work inside EU. Even if Russia takes 50 years to pay off the debt, the money is toll free and flowing from day one inside EU if Ukraine gets to join.
Yes, minefields will take a long time, unless new technology is deployed. There are still no-go zones from WW2. Hasn’t stopped the world from turning.
The Ukrainian economy is predicted to be strong after the war. It’s not just a poor shithole bomb field. Before and even during the war they were and are a key source of agricultural products to the entire world.
The reason Ukraine has been a poor country is not due to lack of production or unwillingness to produce. It’s been due to corruption. Corruption originating in people linked to Russia. The current president pledged to clean the country from that and so he was attacked by the people benefitting from their poverty. Ukraine is strong and will be stronger within EU when it has rid itself of corruption.
Russia can’t pay the costs of restoration they don’t have the money, any amountof repayment is goingto be a token value to the true cost. We also learned from WWI, that saddling nations with crushing reparations is bad. The allies also invested in Germany after WWII, the soviets extracted penalties that are still noticeable today.
Countries just don’t go back to normal after wars. There’s even more opportunity for corruption while rebuilding. Entire cities will need rebuilding, “temporary” housing will need to be established, millions of refugees need places to return to that have power, water, and employment opportunities. Figuring out any looting or plundering is basically impossible beyond a token amount.
Rebuilding an apartment complex and replacing all the stuff inside is a long slow process that will need to happen hundreds of times.
Two words: Mining concessions. Even creates jobs for Russians. Other countries then can guarantee loans against future profits from those. That’s going to be very hard for any future Russian government to disagree with if it’s the condition for lifting sanctions because if there’s one thing Russia has then that’s abundant natural resources. Would also do Russia good to not be able to earn that much foreign currency with resource exports for a change, giving an impulse to develop internally.
As to corruption, well, EPPO. There’s already quite extensive working arrangements in place, as it stands I absolutely expect Ukraine to join EPPO (which would mean they can prosecute in Ukraine). It may not be an official requirement to join but that doesn’t mean that it’s not mandatory.
It’s not going to be easy at all, but it is going to be an easier financial struggle if Ukraine is part of EU, both for Ukraine, EU and even for future Russia. Reuilding will be cheaper and the bill can be footed up front.
Point is that it’s going to be an ongoing balance account rather than a direct loss account. EU doesn’t have to wait for Russia to repay Ukraine, as long as there’s an expectation that “most” of the money will be there.
EU don’t want Russians to be kept in poverty for decades due to war crimes of previous generations, so eventually EU will accept some financial losses and write off the balance to keep Russians from becoming refugees in Europe. Things don’t always cost what is charged, so there’s a lot of levee to negotiate in decades to come, while still making money and keeping everyone afloat. Contractors who do this kind of work know how to ask for prepayment and do price gouging, so they’ll be fine getting paid less than the suggested price.
I’m optimistic that things will work out, but it would be even easier if only Russia would accept the inevitable and cut the losses for everyone.