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Cake day: May 18th, 2025

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  • I agree with most of the other comments here. Is actual AGI something to be worried about? I’m not sure. I don’t know if it’s even possible on our current technology path.

    Based on what I know, it’s almost certainly not going to come from the current crop of LLMs and related research. Despite many claims, they don’t actually think or reason. They’re just really complicated statistical models. And while they can do some interesting and impressive things, I don’t think there is any path of progression that will make them jump beyond what they currently are to actual intelligence.

    Could we develop something in my lifetime (the next 50-ish years or so for me)? Maybe. I think slim chances without a major shift, and I think it would take a public effort akin to the Manhattan Project and the Internet to achieve, but it’s possible. In the next 5 years? Definitely not, some random, massive, lucky break notwithstanding.

    As others have said here, even without AGI, current capitalist practices are already using the limited capabilities of LLMs to upend the labor market and put lots of people out of a job. Even when the LLMs can’t really replace the people effectively. But that’s not a problem with AI, it’s a problem with capitalism that happens with any kind of advancement. They’ll take literally any excuse to extract extra value.

    In summary, I wouldn’t worry about AGI. There’s so many other things that are problems now, and are already existential threats, that worrying about this big old “maybe in 50 years” isn’t really worth your time and energy.