Can’t imagine they let some scrubs like Bayern, Liverpool, PSG and Barcelona in. Should rather be 4 teams from Australia.

That’s mainly due to the low level of games you have played due to the Nations League finals which increases uncertainty. September games against Ireland and Greece will be important but Netherlands are clear favorites.

Lots of interesting results here. Groups with nations league finals teams seem wide open as the favorites only have 2 games but the next international window will already give us a good idea.

In Group A Norway with its two star players is not doing that well, but happy for Scotland as their fans are always a joy to watch.

In Group B Greece seems to be doing ok after a few bad qualifiers but their biggest win is still against Ireland. Greece-Netherlands in September should be interesting to watch.

In Group C Italy and Ukraine have similar roles as Netherlands and Greece in Group B. Too early to say much, but should be getting spicy soon.

In Group D Turkey seems to be doing well, with Armenia and Wales still having a chance. Feels bad for these countries to have drawn Turkey from pot 4.

Group E, what is this even. Poland from Pot 1 losing against Moldova and at 3 points after 3 matches. Seems like they still have pretty good odds though as Albania and Moldova are not expected to win the rest of their games. Poland are also the only team that still didn’t play Faroe Islands and got the 3 (almost) free points.

Group F is not looking good for Sweden. Defeat against Austria was absolutely massive for them as well as Austria getting a point from Belgium. Sweden need everything to go absolutely perfectly to join the tournament.

Group G is one of the weaker groups which explains the huge odds of Hungary and Serbia. No major upsets either with Hungary and Serbia both having an away draw against the second tier teams.

Group H another surprising group with Finland and Kazakhstan on top. The table still has Denmark as the most likely qualifier which seems fair given their quality and free points from San Marino that other teams already got. Second qualifier slot is 58%/42% in favor of Finland against Slovenia.

Group I has a clear favorite in Switzerland but Romania and Israel have a similar position as Finland and Slovenia in the previous group. Group H would probably look like this too if Denmark didn’t fall against Kazakhstan.

Group J has a Portugal at surprising 100.00% as they haven’t mathematically qualified yet. Luxembourg got some huge results with a win away in Bosnia and tie in Slovakia, but still it seems like that’s not enough.