Conversely, people who may not look or sound like a traditional expert, but are good at making predictions

The weird rationalist assumption that being good at predictions is a standalone skill that some people are just gifted with (see also the emphasis on superpredictors being a thing in itself that’s just clamoring to come out of the woodwork but for the lack of sufficient monetary incentive) tends to come off a lot like if an important part of the prediction market project was for rationalists to isolate the muad’dib gene.

To be clear, it’s well known L Ron Hubbard quote originally about starting a religion, to my knowledge Altman didn’t really say that.

Today in relevant skeets:

“I’m a colossal cunt who thinks being coy about holocaust denialism as just another potential grift” - The Yarvinator

I’ll just make a wild assumption that the author of that post is also a raging antisemite who thinks the jews control the world, so being jew-unaligned is probably a point of virtue in his book.

Also I bet the non-secular jews were in actuality not that crazy about Russia either and he just means judeobolshevism.

I mean, it’s not like the holocaust acceptance in that thread is much better.

https://xcancel.com/x_apotheosis/status/1910766575923101837

Old and busted: whitewashing hitlerism by pretending the holocaust didn’t happen.

New hotness: pretending the holocaust just sort of happened one day, completely unrelated to the explicit ideology of the people who planned and executed it and the regime that sanctioned it, and anyway they had their hands full defending themselves against unprovoked attacks by the so-called allies, who can blame them.

The vibe I get is that by ‘enjoyers’ he means people who thought fighting the nazis in WW2 was morally justified.

Here’s a screenshot of a skeet of a screenshot of a tweet featuring an unusually shit take on WW2 by Moldbug:

link

edit: hadn’t seen yarvin’s twitter feed before, that’s one high octane shit show.

Mesa-optimization

Why use the perfectly fine ‘inner optimizer’ mentioned in the references when you can just ask google translate to give you the clunkiest, most pedestrian and also wrong part of speech Greek term to use in place of ‘in’ instead?

Also natural selection is totally like gradient descent brah, even though evolutionary algorithms actually modeled after natural selection used to be their own subcategory of AI before the term just came to mean lying chatbot.

The kokotajlo/scoot thing apparently made it to the new york times.

So this is what that was about:

edit: also @gerikson is apparently a superforcaster

Reminds me of an SMBC comic that had a setup along the same lines, that if male birth order correlates with homosexuality and family size trends being what they are, the past must have been considerably gayer on average.

No idea where they would land on what to mock and what to take seriously from this whole mess.

Don’t know what they’re up to these days but last time I checked I had them pegged as enlightened centrists whose style of satire is having strong beliefs about stuff is cringe more than it is ever having to say anything of even accidental substance about said things.

That was a good one. Also, was he the first to break the coreweave situation? Not a bad journalistic get if that’s the case.

Intelligence² didn’t seem half bad when Robert Anton Wilson was the one talking about it way back when, in retrospect all the libertarianism was a real time bomb.

SMBC using the ratsphere as comics fodder, part the manyeth:

hand-writing your original manuscript

The revenge of That One Teacher who always rode you for having terrible handwriting.

Why make a true crime movie when you can do a heavily editorialized ‘documentary’ for a fraction of the price.

who is this guy anyway, is he in openai/similar inner circle or is that just some random rationalist fanboy?

His grounds for notability are that he’s a dev who back in the day made a useful thing that went on to become incredibly widely used. Like if he’d named redis salvatoredis instead he might have been a household name among swengs.

Also burning only a billion more would be a steal given some of the numbers thrown around.

Not exactly, he thinks that the watermark is part of the copyrighted image and that removing it is such a transformative intervention that the result should be considered a new, non-copyrighted image.

It takes some extra IQ to act this dumb.