Are you really surprised that predictions 70 years into the future are not highly accurate? When you look at the 2004 report, then well we are below the high prediction, but above the mid case. So if the current forecast is of similar quality, then we would indeed have been past peak birth for the next 20 years or so.
In the 2004 report the UN got fertility rates in Africa wrong, believing they would drop much faster then they did. They also though AIDS would be worse then it actually was.
Oh and UN predictions go with a peak around 2070-80 or so since the 90s.
the projections are now double digit at crest wereas in the past the projections were single digit crest. My point is its a moving target and its always the prediction of a crest and not actually a crest. So I think in 20 years when we are double digits they will be talking about how we are cresting and the projections is we will hit 13 billion in 2088 and then go down much like now they say it will hit 10.6 at 2068 and then go down. really its always 50 years ahead so its basically fusion power. It will happen someday if we survive in both cases but the projections are always wrong.
I do. I remember peak numbers in the single digit billions and now its pushed off and in double digit. Its like that always 20 year out thing.
Are you really surprised that predictions 70 years into the future are not highly accurate? When you look at the 2004 report, then well we are below the high prediction, but above the mid case. So if the current forecast is of similar quality, then we would indeed have been past peak birth for the next 20 years or so.
In the 2004 report the UN got fertility rates in Africa wrong, believing they would drop much faster then they did. They also though AIDS would be worse then it actually was.
Oh and UN predictions go with a peak around 2070-80 or so since the 90s.
The population is only 8.2 billion currently. We haven’t even passed 9 billion, much less 10.
the projections are now double digit at crest wereas in the past the projections were single digit crest. My point is its a moving target and its always the prediction of a crest and not actually a crest. So I think in 20 years when we are double digits they will be talking about how we are cresting and the projections is we will hit 13 billion in 2088 and then go down much like now they say it will hit 10.6 at 2068 and then go down. really its always 50 years ahead so its basically fusion power. It will happen someday if we survive in both cases but the projections are always wrong.