politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 2 months ago

Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris

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Pennsylvania may be a problem for Harris

www.natesilver.net

mwguy@infosec.pub to

politics @lemmy.worldEnglish · 2 months ago

The Electoral College/popular vote gap is increasing in post-DNC data.

AI Generated Summary (I’ve been expirimentign with it):

Kamala Harris had a tough day in the forecast despite gains in national polls.
She leads by 3.8 points nationally but has a 47.3% chance of winning the Electoral College.
The model adjusts for convention bounce, assuming her polls are inflated.
Harris’s numbers may improve if she maintains her current standing.
A concern is the lack of polls showing her ahead in Pennsylvania, a key state.
Recent polls show Pennsylvania as a tie or slightly favoring Trump.
Harris has a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College.
RFK’s dropout and endorsement of Trump may impact her in Rust Belt states.
Tim Walz has had a strong rollout as Harris’s VP, but there’s speculation about Josh Shapiro.

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jordanlund@lemmy.worldM
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2 months ago
Current polling shows basically a tie.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

Which is an improvement from Trump +4/+5 vs. Biden.
- mwguy@infosec.pubOP
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  Undoubtedly Harris is an improvement compared to Biden.

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