Exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian shows 55% believe economy is shrinking, in troubling sign for president’s re-election bid

Nearly three in five Americans wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession, and the majority blame the Biden administration, according to a Harris poll conducted exclusively for the Guardian. The survey found persistent pessimism about the economy as election day draws closer.

The poll highlighted many misconceptions people have about the economy, including:

  • 55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.

  • 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

  • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
    415·
    5 months ago

    It’s metrics.

    American culture has an absolutely horrible relationship with metrics.

    For “the economy” the metrics are profits of corporations. Because back in the day that would generally translate to employee pay, number of employees, and how much money was changing hands.

    But metrics should never be the final thing you look at, it’s just an indicator.

    Like, if your engine light isn’t on but black smoke is pouring out from the engine…

    It’s probably best to look under the hood at what’s actually happening.

    But because our economy is based of wealthy investors, and they just care about the metrics, people game the metrics and come up with this rosey view of how things are.

    Regular Americans don’t care about the metrics that are being gamed. We’re looking at the crazy person who’s driving a car around that’s obviously on fire. When they wave at us like everything is normal, it’s not reassuring, it makes us think that person has no clue what’s going on, and it’s probably not a good idea to let them keep driving

    • Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works
      281·
      5 months ago

      That’s not just America. The whole world is addicted to a school of economics that “models” reality without ever actually studying it.

      Most economists basically operate in a world of frictionless spherical cows moving in an infinite vacuum, and then from this try to infer useful data about the expected price of milk.

      • Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world
        101·
        5 months ago

        Most economists basically operate in a world of frictionless spherical cows moving in an infinite vacuum, and then from this try to infer useful data about the expected price of milk

        😘👌

    • eltrain123@lemmy.world
      72·
      5 months ago

      Recession is coming. What we are seeing is how capitalism works. Businesses are squeezing as much profitability as they can out of existing products. The stories you see about record profits drive those actions. As long as they are making money, they push the strategy. The stories we are just starting to see about price cuts (like Target lowering grocery prices and the likes) are early indicators that corporate profits are peaking and adjustments need to be made to continue sales before revenue falls off a cliff.

      People suffer when they get priced out of purchasing power. Businesses will suffer when they squeeze the market too hard, which is where we are. Unfortunately, people are going to suffer on that side, too, as businesses cut jobs to try to stem the bleeding.

      We are in for a few fucked up years regardless of who gets elected in the next presidency. It takes a long time for real changes in the economy to show up. A lot of what we are dealing with is from the money flooded into the economy during Covid (under both Trump and Biden) and the swings in pricing due to loss of supply chain and the stickiness of pricing associated with its return.

      • givesomefucks@lemmy.worldEnglish
        12·
        5 months ago

        like Target lowering grocery prices and the like

        That’s not them.lowering prices…

        That’s them launching a “value brand” they slap their name on.

        It’s priced low to capture market share. Why make $1 a unit you’re selling when you can make $2 a unit because you’re also the one who makes it?