• Gork@lemm.ee
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      10 months ago

      Let’s see… Major ones are

      • Russia-Ukraine in Eastern Europe

      • Israel-Hamas in the Middle East

      • Civil war in Myanmar

      • Azerbaijan-Armenia

      Possible flashpoints are

      • Taiwan-China (roping in the US)

      • Russia-NATO (Poland or the Baltics)

      • Iran-Israel (not entirely sure how that’ll work since they’re not directly adjacent)

      • North Korea-South Korea

      I see the world coalescing into two major axes of power: “the West” and Western aligned/allied nations comprising US/UK/EU/Australia/Israel/Japan/S. Korea on one side. Largely Democracies or Parliamentary systems.

      On the other: Russia, China, North Korea, Iran. Largely Autocracies, and one Autocracy with Chinese Characteristics™. All four have beef to pick with Western countries. They might press their advantages if they see that Western support for each other wavers (Ukraine and Israel). We’re already seeing them warm in relations with each other (Putin/Kim visit, arms deals between Russia/China and Russia/N. Korea). They might form their own NATO style Bloc which would be stronger than the paper tiger that is the CIS. Combined, they may very well have the ability to split the West’s priorities if internal division is strong.

      I think it’s going to get even more tense the further this decade goes on. The dice that is the US Presidential election may decide the next big moves of these nations.

      • BarqsHasBite@lemmy.world
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        10 months ago

        Don’t forget Pakistan and India and their weird alliances. Though I think the possible war part is on hold because of the floods.

        As for China they are probably shitting their pants when they saw what corruption did to the Russian military. They have to crack down on corruption, make sure their military is up to actual snuff, which pushes back any invasion hope.