I suppose it could be a random hardware failure, but I literally touched nothing not listed in the iFixit SSD guide; the Start button itself (the three lines) isn’t anywhere near there!
I’ve already tried moving back and forth in the beta & stable software channels to no effect.
Edit: it’s technically the “menu” button, but I think it gets often confused with the button labeled with the word “Steam”
I’m going to have to pay $150 and send it in to be fixed. :(
That’s unfortunate. Better than buying a whole new unit though.