• kerrigan778@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    7 days ago

    It’s straight up not a thing, there is no number of years which tends to correspond to the life expectancy of empires

    • daydrinkingchickadee@lemmy.mlOP
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      7 days ago

      We’re talking about the average life expectancy of an empire. It’s a fairly straightforward calculation if one has all the data ready.

      • fushuan [he/him]@piefed.blahaj.zone
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        11 hours ago

        Average out of which number? There has not been enough empires in human history to get any kind of valid statistical conclusion.

        Also, the ancient egyptian empire lasted over 3k years, for you to get an average of 250y with such outlier you would need to include what, several 10y “empires”, or divide empires by ruler. Which would then make the conversation moot since each US president would be a new “empire”.

        The claim comes from John Glubb, and he used this chart to make the average out of… 11 data points!?! While missing tons of other ancient empires that lasted thousands of years?!

        This is the book where he makes such claim

        So to answer your comment, yeah math is easy. Impossible to reach such average number with all the data though, given that it was made with a wildly incomplete and incorrect data…

      • silasmariner@programming.dev
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        6 days ago

        It’s not really that straightforward though, is it? Firstly is it a mean or a median average? What counts as an empire? When do we date the rise and fall of specific empires? These are not questions with straightforwards answers. Would Hitler’s Germany count as an empire? How many Roman empires were there?

          • AppleTea@lemmy.zip
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            6 days ago

            Do you count the Byzantine as separate or the same as Rome?

            Your talking about structures comprising huge numbers of people across multiple generations. There is no clear “death”. Just the gradual shifting from one set of conditions to another. Pick any line in the sand, declare it to be the “end” of an empire, and you’ll still find people living under its rules, speaking the language, and using the currency well afterward.

            Hell, look at Britain. No longer the globe-strangling power that they were, but it’s still the same country with the same rules and government and money.

      • essell@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        Sure, we could also work out the average life expectancy of a mammal.

        But, would it really be useful, predictive or meaningful, given the variety and variability of the conditions the data emerges from?

      • _g_be@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        It being an average number, pulled out of it’s context, doesn’t necessarily mean anything beyond just the average