China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
China might have a 2 year window coming up where it’s even possible to invade Taiwan. Their military has modernized a lot, but they probably aren’t quite to the point of being able to pull it off. At the same time, they are looking at a demographic cliff from the long term implications of the One Child policy.
It’s possible this window as already closed. That said, authoritarian regimes have started wars before that were terrible ideas.
Yeah with how effective drones have been in Ukraine (especially in hitting the Russian Navy) I kinda doubt they’ll have the capability. I feel like Taiwan is probably developing the capability to mass produce drones right now. They most definitely have the technology. Amphibious invasions are really hard to pull off, and China doesn’t have a lot of naval experience. And nobody has ever done it with a thousand drone boats in the water.
And yup, authoritarians do stupid things with their military, we saw that already with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, how stupid is Xi Jinping? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.