Lowy Institute report shows trust in the US has tumbled to lowest level since thinktank began polling
Archived version: https://archive.is/20250615183525/https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/16/lowy-poll-2025-china-us-trump-trust
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Aren’t they already?
Soft power yes, military power not yet I’d say
There was a moment around the year 2000 when this might have been the case but China’s demographics and unwillingness to permit meaningful immigration will see a decline of 20-25% of their working age population over the next 30 years due to a plummeting fertility rate. This phenomenon isn’t unique to China, but China is one of the hardest hit for many reasons. A decline of hundreds of millions of workers is going to destroy their economy - especially with such a large elderly population set to retire. There is no chance they fully transition to a services based economy by then. Not even close. They still have hundreds of millions of citizens living subsistence farming lifestyles.
Now compound this with all of the structural issues like command and control policies which destroy whole industries because the dictator in charge has a mood swing, a property bubble from which they will never recover, an economy built on unnecessary public spending, and an educational system which continues to emphasise blind obedience over individualism, and I think it very difficult to believe China becomes the most “powerful” country by 2035.
China has proven itself able to change drastically and quickly. High speed rail and renewable energy. Both massive undertakings tackling massive problems for China and both done far faster and on a much larger scale than anywhere else. If there’s one country I actually trust to be proactive about securing its future, it’s China. I’ll take the wait and see approach to the supposed imminent demographic collapse
The question is, will they decline more than their competitors? Right now i think the US will decline a lot more a lot faster. And Russia will likely not even be around.
This is an excellent question. I think the major question mark hanging over this projection is the role that automation will play in the future. Both in terms of physical production, and in terms of white collar or office work. One could argue that economies which are best positioned to take advantage of automation might feel the impact of a declining workforce less, but then those same societies run the risk of high unemployment and low domestic economic demand for products and services. The balance is crucial and economies are generally slow to pivot.
What makes the US the most powerful country in the world? It’s our cultural exports, our educational institutions, and our technology. We spent decades handing all our technology over to China, and undermining education. Now Trump has poisoned the American brand for at least a generation.
China is way ahead on building a science and technology culture, and promoting education. The dividends from those investments are already paying off, and they are going to start compounding.
A lot of Americans still think of China as the place to make cheap goods, but their manufacturing sector has benefited from decades of stolen expertise. It turns out there are benefits from having engineers and factory workers in the same location. Faster feedback means faster development. Now the US is falling behind.
The biggest problem with China is that they are Authoritarian.
That is indeed a problem but, speaking strictly about competitiveness, it does have it’s advantages. For example, the US really needs more strategically important goods to be manufactured at home, but that is really hard to do if market conditions favor offshoring. China can just dictate the sourcing - even in the (so called) private sector.
That is in fact their greatest strength and the primary reason why our usual strategies for undermining our political & economic rivals don’t work on them. Sitting back and allowing shit to fall apart because “freedom” is moronic, just look at what the US has turned into for a perfect example.
Completely agree. Also it’s not really “stolen expertise” as wetern companies and capitalist countries given it away willingly in exchange for cheap manufacturing. They just never expected China to take advantage of it to compete on a global market.
I don’t think they really cared if China took advantage of it. America’s CEOs are only invested in the next few quarters, at best. Something that might take a decade or two is entirely not relevant to their planning and actions.
A lot of Americans still think of China as the place to make cheap goods, but their manufacturing sector has benefited from decades of stolen expertise.
I listened to a podcast (Dithering; it’s subscription based) talking about a book about Apple’s manufacturing operations in China. The distinction was that other companies guarded because their techniques would be stolen, whereas Apple focused on “we’re gonna teach you to do this,” which then proliferated to other companies. We wouldn’t have semi-affordable (depending on your situation) iPhones otherwise. They be impossible to build at scale. Really eye opening.
The ep was the second one last week, if you wanna listen.
We wouldn’t have semi-affordable (depending on your situation) iPhones otherwise. They be impossible to build at scale. Really eye opening.
Yes we would, they’d just have to lower their ridiculously high profit margins: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/30/apples-gross-margin-hits-record-as-services-business-keeps-growing.html
For many years in the iPhone era, Apple’s gross margin would predictably come in at between 38% and 39%, reflecting the company’s tight grip over its supply chain and its pricing power in the market.
Apple’s huge profit margins are only possible because of the scale of their operations in China. They’re moving to India and Vietnam. It remains to be seen how that will work out. China has been building expertise in manufacturing for decades. My statement stands.
What are your “cultural exports”?
Movies, fast food chains, clothing chains, etc. The American brand and lifestyle that goes with it. Not exactly the greatest cultural achievements of all time, but they brought in cash.
Capitalism isn’t culture.
Correct, the clothes and movies and music are the culture
Can you name an aspect that is USA specific?
Are you completely culturally illiterate?
No. Are you?
You have a wrong concept of what is culture
Are you trying to tell me capitalism is culture?
Culture is what defines a society, so make of that what you want.
I can get down with that…
I can’t speak for the rest of the world, but in Serbia 90% of TV shows and movies are American, and generally people watch primarily American movies/series online and in cinemas. Most people listen to American music and use English words in daily conversation. Most are familiar with things like 9/11, Vietnam, 4th of July, Woodstock, hippies etc.
A lot of younger people are more familiar with American history, topics, movies and music than their own culture. I’m not saying it’s good, but Americans have an undeniably strong cultural influence, at least in Europe.
Yes, but what is uniquely USA? It’s US Defaultism.
What did you write this comment on?
I’m gonna skip a step…Nothing invented by USAian, no I won’t be elaborating or entertaining your delusions with further discussion. Search engines are your friend.
So, let me guess, a Zuse Z1?
Now Trump has poisoned the American brand for at least a generation.
Bitch please. Trump is far from the only reason people hate the USA. Especially after they used the Internet as a trojan horse to launch mass surveillance upon the entire globe.
China already dominates the global ev market.
It’s already called an electrostate and they’ll supplant the old petrostates.
Sure, China will rise and then it will fall under its own weight just like every empire before it.
Nobody currently alive will live to see it
That’s true, but the time between rise and fall takes a while. From the looks of things, the US empire is in the process of falling, which would clear the way for China to take over the top spot. This may change depending on how things go, but if China can grab that spot then it’ll take a while for their turn to fall.
Doubt it takes that long
Edit: damnit, replied at the wrong place
A lot of Americans still think of China as the place to make cheap goods, but their manufacturing sector has benefited from decades of stolen expertise.
I listened to a podcast (Dithering; it’s subscription based) talking about a book about Apple’s manufacturing operations in China. The distinction was that other companies guarded because their techniques would be stolen, whereas Apple focused on “we’re gonna teach you to do this,” which then proliferated to other companies. We wouldn’t have semi-affordable (depending on your situation) iPhones otherwise. They be impossible to build at scale. Really eye opening.
The ep was the second one last week, if you wanna listen.
I saw that book pass by on the Daily Show:
Patrick McGee - Apple In China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company
