Actually there are more polls coming out that have Mamdani ahead now, still extremely close but I wouldn’t call it a guaranteed win for Cuomo. Especially since we’re just starting to see the ripple effects from the Mayoral debate and AOC’s endorsement.
Yeah that’s fair, I think the main thing you can hope for is that a lot of Cuomo’s support comes just from people who pick him just because they recognize him, which means they’re probably not high propensity voters. Meanwhile a lot of Mamdani’s support is grassroots which means hopefully a lot of his supporters are high propensity voters.
I hope those that voted already left Cuomo off their ballot, but there’s always going to be voters who will rank him and Mamdani, though both propose very different visions for the city. About double the number of people from 2021 are voting early this time, so I think we may be in for a pleasant surprise.
Important to remember, too, that a lot of those polls make meaningful assumptions about who is likely to turn out, and Mamdani’s strategy is pretty zeroed-in on mobilizing registered democrats who ordinarily would not be likely to vote in a primary race.
Cuomo’s campaign is extremely traditional and aiming at traditionally active primary voters, so it would be extremely encouraging to see a major race be won by the radical, non-traditional candidate over the traditional establishment one. It would certainly open up the field for 2028, especially against establishment democrats who’s main advantage is their safe coalition numbers.
Actually there are more polls coming out that have Mamdani ahead now, still extremely close but I wouldn’t call it a guaranteed win for Cuomo. Especially since we’re just starting to see the ripple effects from the Mayoral debate and AOC’s endorsement.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/11/zohran-mamdani-climbs-to-top-of-poll-leading-andrew-cuomo-00401594
I really hope that’s true! Given all our history I’ve grown to have very little faith in the electorate lol
Yeah that’s fair, I think the main thing you can hope for is that a lot of Cuomo’s support comes just from people who pick him just because they recognize him, which means they’re probably not high propensity voters. Meanwhile a lot of Mamdani’s support is grassroots which means hopefully a lot of his supporters are high propensity voters.
I hope those that voted already left Cuomo off their ballot, but there’s always going to be voters who will rank him and Mamdani, though both propose very different visions for the city. About double the number of people from 2021 are voting early this time, so I think we may be in for a pleasant surprise.
Important to remember, too, that a lot of those polls make meaningful assumptions about who is likely to turn out, and Mamdani’s strategy is pretty zeroed-in on mobilizing registered democrats who ordinarily would not be likely to vote in a primary race.
Cuomo’s campaign is extremely traditional and aiming at traditionally active primary voters, so it would be extremely encouraging to see a major race be won by the radical, non-traditional candidate over the traditional establishment one. It would certainly open up the field for 2028, especially against establishment democrats who’s main advantage is their safe coalition numbers.