If you combine Warren and Sanders into one candidate by the end of Super Tuesday would they have a popular vote lead over Biden in all states who voted up to that point?
Is there a reason Sanders didn’t perform better after Warren dropped out?
If you combine Warren and Sanders into one candidate by the end of Super Tuesday would they have a popular vote lead over Biden in all states who voted up to that point?
I was genuinely curious on the answer, so I peaked in…
Hard to scrape this data into excel, but I’m counting from Iowa to Virginia
Biden | Sanders | Warren
5,801,434.00 | 5,119,921.00 | 2,214,498.00
So yes, by about 1.5M votes.
I’ll spot you that - in this scenario - Bloomberg fucks Biden by picking up another 2M votes over the same states. But Biden absolutely pooched it in California and Texas. That alone almost cost him the race.
He leaned hard on the Obama coalition from 2008, cleaning up across the Atlantic and Gulf Coast in large part thanks to Obama’s (eventual) endorsement.
Is there a reason Sanders didn’t perform better after Warren dropped out?
The late game Obama endorsement carried a lot of weight. Plus, COVID was shutting down canvasing and turning the fight into an air war. Biden’s money and the DNC support gave him a lopsided advantage.
Functionally, its the same reason Trump lost the following November. The entire election became a TV race and the networks were firmly in Biden’s corner.
Okay, this is super cool, and the data you scrapped makes a really compelling case that you were correct this entire time, Warren did split the vote.
So this might be a rhetorical question, but is there a lesson that leftists and progressives can take away from this? Does there need to be a clearer direction on leftist unity when approaching a DNC primary to influence the outcome? Did leftists give up way too fast after Super Tuesday? Were leftists too easily influenced by Obama and TV coverage?
but is there a lesson that leftists and progressives can take away from this?
Idk if there’s a magic bullet Dems could have used in 2020 to win the primary, if that’s what you mean. Sometimes the deck is simply stacked against you.
Prior to 2000, I think there was a real demand within the Left/Progressive movement for a third party. Then Nader took the blame for Gore losing and The Green Party as a project fell apart (more or less taking the Libertarians with it).
Now we’ve got Berniecrats convinced Dem Entryism is the solution. But the caveat to Entryism is that you need to be party loyal even when the party is shit. So Bernie gets rug pulled by the DNC in '16 and '20 but still stubbornly stumps for Hillary and Biden. Still gets all of the blame. Still gets none of the credit. Still has no material influence in the party. Neither does AOC.
So that doesn’t seem to work, either.
I don’t have an answer, but it seems like Liberal media and money is a monumental problem for either the outsider or insider strategy.
So long as leftists remain the whipping boy of the party - whether its blaming the LGBTQ community for Trump or environmentalists for Bush or anti-War activists for Nixon - they’ve got no mainstream future. They’ll always be seen as spoiler candidates in the lens of a corporate media.
If you combine Warren and Sanders into one candidate by the end of Super Tuesday would they have a popular vote lead over Biden in all states who voted up to that point?
Is there a reason Sanders didn’t perform better after Warren dropped out?
I was genuinely curious on the answer, so I peaked in…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Hard to scrape this data into excel, but I’m counting from Iowa to Virginia
Biden | Sanders | Warren
5,801,434.00 | 5,119,921.00 | 2,214,498.00
So yes, by about 1.5M votes.
I’ll spot you that - in this scenario - Bloomberg fucks Biden by picking up another 2M votes over the same states. But Biden absolutely pooched it in California and Texas. That alone almost cost him the race.
He leaned hard on the Obama coalition from 2008, cleaning up across the Atlantic and Gulf Coast in large part thanks to Obama’s (eventual) endorsement.
The late game Obama endorsement carried a lot of weight. Plus, COVID was shutting down canvasing and turning the fight into an air war. Biden’s money and the DNC support gave him a lopsided advantage.
Functionally, its the same reason Trump lost the following November. The entire election became a TV race and the networks were firmly in Biden’s corner.
Okay, this is super cool, and the data you scrapped makes a really compelling case that you were correct this entire time, Warren did split the vote.
So this might be a rhetorical question, but is there a lesson that leftists and progressives can take away from this? Does there need to be a clearer direction on leftist unity when approaching a DNC primary to influence the outcome? Did leftists give up way too fast after Super Tuesday? Were leftists too easily influenced by Obama and TV coverage?
Idk if there’s a magic bullet Dems could have used in 2020 to win the primary, if that’s what you mean. Sometimes the deck is simply stacked against you.
Prior to 2000, I think there was a real demand within the Left/Progressive movement for a third party. Then Nader took the blame for Gore losing and The Green Party as a project fell apart (more or less taking the Libertarians with it).
Now we’ve got Berniecrats convinced Dem Entryism is the solution. But the caveat to Entryism is that you need to be party loyal even when the party is shit. So Bernie gets rug pulled by the DNC in '16 and '20 but still stubbornly stumps for Hillary and Biden. Still gets all of the blame. Still gets none of the credit. Still has no material influence in the party. Neither does AOC.
So that doesn’t seem to work, either.
I don’t have an answer, but it seems like Liberal media and money is a monumental problem for either the outsider or insider strategy.
So long as leftists remain the whipping boy of the party - whether its blaming the LGBTQ community for Trump or environmentalists for Bush or anti-War activists for Nixon - they’ve got no mainstream future. They’ll always be seen as spoiler candidates in the lens of a corporate media.
Somehow there has to be a way for leftists to just stop feeling bad about themselves and get a win somewhere.