[…]
For Trump, Ukraine’s southern peninsula was “lost years ago” and “is not even a part of discussion” in peace talks.
But for Zelensky to renounce Crimea as an indivisible part of Ukraine would be unconscionable.
In the words of opposition MP Iryna Gerashchenko “territorial integrity and sovereignty is a red line for Ukraine and Ukrainians”.
[…]
Putin later admitted hatching the land-grab [the attack on Crimea] in an all-night meeting with his officials days after Ukraine’s pro-Russian leader was ousted in Kyiv.
[…]
Zelensky was adamant that he has no power to give up Crimea: “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our constitution.”
Article 2 of the constitution states that Ukraine’s sovereignty “extends throughout its entire territory” which “within its present border is indivisible and inviolable”.
Any change to Ukraine’s territory has to go to a national referendum, which must be authorised by the Ukrainian parliament.
[…]
Crimea along with the rest of Ukraine voted for independence from the collapsing Soviet Union in 1991. It had the status of autonomous republic within and Kyiv allowed Russia to lease the port of Sevastopol as a base for the Black Sea Fleet.
[…]
This is just gonna end in the same way as the Korean war isn’t it
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And shouldn’t.
The Crimean peninsula—like a crown—sits atop the Black Sea exercising control over its length and breadth. A Kremlin Crimea renders the Black Sea a virtual Russian lake, awarding Vladimir Putin sway across the entire Ukrainian coast past Odessa to the Danube Delta as well as Moldova and Romania.
Russia with Crimea and the Black Sea under its control will be free to direct its focus on finishing its subjugation of the South Caucasus. Russia has already made deep inroads in Georgia turning the nation away from Europe. Armenia’s nascent counter-revolution to throw away the Russian yoke will not survive an undistracted Russian thrust to bring it back to the fold.
Putin, with Georgia and Armenia under its heel, will achieve his dream of reinstating Russian control of the Black Sea from the Turkish border in the east to Romania in the west. A Russian Crimea enabling Kremlin control of the Black Sea and the Caucasus will constitute a great victory for its special military operation. For America and Europe, this is a immense strategic defeat.
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China will be the biggest beneficiary if Russia controls these Eurasian chokepoints between Central Asia and Europe.** Russia is increasingly an economic vassal state of China and lacks any leverage to compete with it across Eurasia economically**. Chinese engineers are presently paving the road connecting the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia road network. China has inked strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia and have secured the concession to operate Georgia’s Black Sea deep water port, Anaklia. Across Central Asia, China has long displaced Russia as the dominant economic actor.
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Any possible negotiated end to the war at this time would involve territorial concessions by Ukraine. Putin himself won’t agree to withdraw from most of the territory occupied since 2022, and even if he is replaced by a new, much less expansionist ruler willing to withdraw from all that territory, the new ruler still won’t give back Crimea.
Then we fight until the kremlin gremlin is deposed.
That’s too bad. Until Russia returns crimea and pays reparation for all the damage it caused in this belligerent invasion - in cash or clean land - trade needs to be a challenge.
Then Ukraine will fight to the end. Simple as that.
Whose?
And third world war began long ago, even so while western europe tried to avoid just that ( 2008, Bucharest: https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220404-merkel-defends-2008-decision-to-block-ukraine-from-nato )
Not really, there could be a ceasefire alla Korea. That doesn’t involve anyone agreeing to the territory ownership in anyway.