President Donald Trump said the U.S. will "go as far as we have to go" to get control of Greenland, ahead of a planned visit to the Arctic island by the vice president.
If he actually orders an invasion of Greenland I’d put the odds at around 12%. My guess is around 60% the military will refuse to carry out the order (it would be after all in violation of the War Powers Resolution unless congress approves), then 80% chance Trump will back down. Of course that’s if he gives the order, my guess of that is around 30%, reducing the odds of a greenland-related coup to around 4%. In reality the most likely path is that once the military explains to Trump that they want congressional approval, he’ll lose interest and go on to scaring us some other way.
If he actually orders an invasion of Greenland I’d put the odds at around 12%. My guess is around 60% the military will refuse to carry out the order (it would be after all in violation of the War Powers Resolution unless congress approves), then 80% chance Trump will back down. Of course that’s if he gives the order, my guess of that is around 30%, reducing the odds of a greenland-related coup to around 4%. In reality the most likely path is that once the military explains to Trump that they want congressional approval, he’ll lose interest and go on to scaring us some other way.