• Jarosław Stróżyk said Putin is in a position where he could begin planning a small-scale invasion but is holding back due to the West’s response to the attack in Ukraine.

    “Putin is certainly already prepared for some mini-operation against one of the Baltic countries, for example, to enter the famous Narva [municipality in Estonia] or to land on one of the Swedish islands,” Mr Stróżyk told Polish paper Dziennik Gazeta Prawna.

    Tl;dr - We think that Putin has the capability to mount a small scale invasion, but isn’t doing it because of NATO’s potential response. But if we assume he really wants to, then he will.