I think you’re thinking too short term.

If they went for 15yrs before they Extinguish, and they’re able to capture 99% of the newcomers to the space, a lot of the current users will have moved on for various other reasons. So the expectation that things would reset to how they are now is false.

Many, if not most, of the people who are here now likely won’t be in 15+ years just due to generalized attrition.

My immediate reaction as well.

While I don’t disagree that this point is almost exclusively made by trolls, the way you’ve phrased this implies you think they’re correct in pointing out that it’s a contradiction to no support trans-racial people.

Trans-racial people clearly exist to some small degree (Rachel Dolozov being the famous example). Should people be defending her choice to identify as black, since race is just a social construct?

As an example, the lawsuit alleged that Faust and other white, male farmers are charged a $100 “administration fee” to participate in one program that exempts women and minority farmers from paying the same fee. In another example, Faust “participates in a USDA program that guarantees 90% of the value of loans to white farmers, but 95% to women and racial minorities,” according to the report.

While I’m not exactly sympathetic to the “plight of the white man,” it is a little weird (if true) that the USDA can have a “white men only fee” for some programs.

My understanding was that most DEI initiatives were built around breaking up old-boys-clubs by requiring preference for minority businesses when all other factors are considered equal. The above doesn’t really feel like that.

Woah, that’s nuts. I feel like most missiles don’t reach target in Israel. Maybe that’s cause most are aimed at Jerusalem and the Iron Dome though?

I mean, “matter”? I guess it doesn’t.

But you were saying things would have been different if they hadn’t all voted for Trump. I was just pointing out that they probably didn’t for the most part.

What percentage of these people do you think voted for Trump in the first place?

I think at the end of the day what we are disagreeing over is the word plausible.

If we both picked a random address somewhere in North America, is it plausible that we would happen to pick the same one? It’s possible, certainly, but vanishingly unlikely. Unlikely to the point that, if we did, I would presume something other than random chance was to blame. That is what I’m contesting here.

I agree that TERFs are orders of magnitude more likely to assault someone than the average person. I agree that assault is proceeded by harassment. I agree that women have been assaulted in recent memory over this very issue.

I agree with everything you’ve said. But none of that makes it “plausible” in the sense that it happening is something I would reasonably expect to happen. The statistical odds of it happening are relevant, in that they are so remote as to make the alternative explanation that it’s satire a vastly more plausible explanation. So much so that, when I read the headline, I immediately knew it was satire, and find it concerning that people didn’t.

Sure, if I orchestrated two TERFs who might be mistaken as trans to go into the same bathroom at the same time, this might be a plausible outcome. But that orchestration is the required step. The scenario where they do go into the bathroom at the same time is the absurd part, and what makes this clearly satire.

And, as an aside, I disagree with you about the mech suits. We do have mechanical exoskeleton prototypes. They’re not very practical for 99% of use cases, so they aren’t really used. But it’s not unfathomable that I could get one and ride it to work sometime in the next decade. It’s certainly not plausible, but it’s something I could make happen if I tried really hard to force it probably. Much like the thing we’re talking about.

You keep talking about harassment, but that’s irrelevant to the point I’m making. All my statistics were about assault. And you avoided stating a number of assaults you think go unreported. Pick a number? Is it 90% of assaults go unreported? 99%? Because even at those numbers, the odds are still shockingly low that this could happen.

And we’re talking about an altercation where two women beat each other to the point that both are hospitalized. This would be newsworthy on its own, and is certainly not a daily occurrence. To add to that that the motive was “both thought the other was trans,” and that doesn’t set off your “probably ragebait” buzzer? And we’re not talking about a hypothetical here. It was ragebait.

And let’s be doubly clear, this has never happened in real life. And I’d bet you any sum of money that it won’t in the next 100yrs. Plausible doesn’t just mean that you can imagine it happening. I can imagine a world where I’m piloting a mechsuit to work every day in the next decade. Just cause I can imagine it doesn’t make it plausible.

The most liberal estimate that I could find on how often violent crimes go unreported is 60%. So, to be extra generous let’s say there are 10,000 violent crimes per day. There’s still millions of bathrooms and hundreds of millions of people.

And, while we’re making a point of it. 80% of violent crimes are committed by men. So bring that 10k back down to 2k for the actual potential sample here.

You think one out of every 2000 violent crimes committed by women are violent TERFs beating up non-trans people that they thought were trans in public bathrooms? Because that’s what it would have to be to be once a day on average.

Or, maybe you think my liberal overestimate of unreported violent crime is wrong? What percent do you think goes unreported?

The odds of this are on par with a set of identical twins being struck by lighting at the same time while on different continents. Impossible? No. Implausible? Very much yes.

Exactly.

Of those 8 billion, how many would self describe as “gender critical feminists”? I’m betting that there aren’t a lot in, say, Saudi Arabia. It’s a pretty Anglocentric term.

And I again refer back to the 3000 total violent crimes a day in the US. We can probably safely assume that the per-capita number is lower on most other countries with “gender critical feminists” as a prominent social group.

So, if we say there are 3000 violent crimes per 350million people a day, how many of those do you think are a cis woman getting physically beaten up for being mistaken as a trans person?

Nah, I read Mrs Frisby. They mostly just go chill on a farm when you make genetic super intelligent rats.

Yeah, but there are a lot fewer people I would describe as “gender critical feminists.” But sure, happy to extend my numbers to cover Europe too if you want. They hold up there too. Unless you think brawls in women’s bathrooms are way more common in France than the good old USofA?

“Completely plausible” you say, about an event that’s astronomically unlikely.

The percentage of people being physically assaulted in bathrooms for being mistakenly identified as trans, while certainly a thing that heppens, isn’t exactly common. Certainly occurring less than once a day. There are millions of restrooms available to the public in some capacity in the US.

(In case you want to dispute the “once a day” thing, there are about 3000 violent crimes total per day in the US. If you think that non trans people being assaulted for being presumed trans while in a bathroom is one of those 3000 every single day, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.)

The odds that two people who are both the kind of person to physically assault a presumed trans person in a bathroom both going to the same bathroom, and both mistaking the other as a trans person is comically unlikely.

Combine that with the fact that it’s the kind of comical situation that appeals to the particular brand of schadenfreude that works so well in online spaces like this, and it doesn’t even begin to tickle your, “hey this might be satire” sensors? I think that says more about your critical thinking skills than it does about the state of the nation.

The number of posts today that are clearly satire but everyone is taking this seriously is super high.

I mean, this is the second, so not that high. But it’s weird that it’s happened twice.

This is satire.

This kinda reads like a Q post.

All posted by the same guy, to be fair.

Other countries don’t enshrine freedom of speech the way the US does. In many countries certain types of political speech are outlawed.